The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former options trader and a professor of risk engineering. The book is part of a five-book series by Taleb on uncertainty, called Incerto. In this book, Taleb introduces the concept of a black swan, which is an extremely rare and unpredictable event that has a huge impact on history, science, technology, finance, and society. Examples of black swans include the rise of the internet, the 9/11 attacks, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Taleb argues that most of our knowledge and predictions are based on what we already know and observe, which makes us blind to the possibility and consequences of black swans. He also criticizes the human tendency to rationalize and simplify black swans after they happen, as if they were predictable and inevitable. Taleb’s main message is that we should embrace uncertainty and randomness, rather than try to avoid or control them. He proposes a set of principles and practices to help us deal with black swans and benefit from them. These include being skeptical of experts and theories, being aware of our own biases and limitations, being open to alternative perspectives and scenarios, being flexible and adaptable to changing situations, being prepared for the worst-case outcomes, and being antifragile, which means gaining from disorder and volatility. Taleb also warns us against the dangers of overconfidence, arrogance, and hubris, which can make us vulnerable to black swans. The book is written in a lively and engaging style, with anecdotes, stories, parables, and philosophical discussions. Taleb draws on his personal experience as a trader and a scholar, as well as his wide-ranging knowledge of history, literature, science, mathematics, psychology, and economics. He challenges conventional wisdom and provokes readers to question their own assumptions and beliefs. He also injects humor and sarcasm into his arguments, making them entertaining and memorable. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a landmark book that has influenced many fields and domains. It is a book that challenges us to rethink our understanding of the world and our role in it. It is a book that offers insights, wisdom, and inspiration for navigating the complex and uncertain reality that we face.

Superb read!

NNT could have easily compressed his points and concepts in a crisp 200 page best seller but instead choose, given his style of writing, to present his views in a rather long, occassionally drifting 380 page odd book. The concepts are profound and illuminating but i guess his publisher couldn't pressure him enough to compress those. This does not take away from the fact that just like Fooled by Randomness and Skin in the Game, this piece too is mindblowing. A must read.

Good

A great read, beautifully and subtly brings out the difference between mandelbrotian and gaussian statistics and the error that we make is viewing all the world through the standard lens of bell curve. Nassim Taleb is a scholar with an eye for practical wisdom. He talks on beautifully bringing out the peculiarities of the statisticians flawed thought process world over. Explains it beautifully taking examples from history, science, finance. The extremistan and mediocristan would remain etched in my mind serving as memory pegs helping me take sound decisions and ringing a bell inmy head whenever I am about to ignore a blackswan from extremistan. It takes a certain amount of prodigy to explain complex stuff with such a great erudition. Fabulous work Mr. Taleb

I've not finished the book yet partly because of smaller fonts. Wish they optimise the font size to be minimum 9 or 10. The book is enigmatic and I love the new perspectives it brings. This is not from the usual "one book every year " author.

As far as books is concerned. I’ve read it multiple times and I own previous editions. Main purpose of buying was to own the second edition but I received same version as I bought 5 years back. This is my first bad experience with Amazon books and probably the last. It’s better to buy such books at the store.

In the kindle version, there is a major flaw in in the formula of the Mandelbrotian law which is at the center of the book. A power sign is printed in the kindle version such that it does not look like a power sign

I am an Economist , needless to say i felt attacked a bit reading the book (if you read it you will get it), however you see that the point he is trying to make is very very powerful, so managing that he goes overboard and exaggerate on some things (various actually) will make you understand him more and understand his point of the power of the unknown which do seems to be forgotten about as if everything was predictable and expected, his style of writing is interesting, funny (sometimes) and clever, would recommend is an excellent book from NNT, its like opening a cookie jar who has an excellent cookie but slaps you a bit before you get it.

I recommend this book without restriction to every conscious reader. Having read his first book "Fooled by randomness", I must say that this book is not as concise as the previous in making his point. This book has a more personal touch, where more of his character shines through. With respect to his first book, this one seems more mature as far as the formulation of his thoughts is concerened. I have the feeling that he wrote everything he wanted to write, whereas in the first, I had the feeling that he just rushed through the material. I do not want to write a short summary, because his ideas may have a big impact to everyone. In fact, everyone should have read this book. For its ideas can change the way one looks at the world and the things that happen everyday...

Utilizamos, realizamos todos os testes que vieram à nossa mente e entendemos que cumpriu com o que prometia e com o que nós estávamos necessitando.

Es un libro de impacto. Muy recomendable para aprender a gestionar el impacto de lo imprevisible en todos los ordenes de la vida, tanto social como laboral y comercial. Responde perfectamente a la pregunta de porque las previsiones fruto de la experiència adquirida al final no sirven para nada.....

Mkt intressant. Dock ganska tungläst