Summary of Superforecasting: by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner - Includes Analysis

I'm a big fan of Instaread, and Instaread's model is to create short, concise summary and analysis supplements to actual books. I must emphasize that this particular supplement is just that, a supplement. The summary is nice an short, and the analysis of key takeaways is insightful and presented well. Just remember that this supplement should probably be read alongside, or after reading the actual book, just because forecasting is a very complex topic. Please note, I am a long time reader of Instaread, and was provided with this book in exchange for a fair and honest review.

Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, has extensively studied the science of forecasting. He has sought to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts. What he has learned in his study is that many professional forecasters and pundits are less accurate than the average person taking a wild guess, but that they are never held accountable for the inaccuracy of their forecasts. He found also that many people use two methods of forecasting; 1) taking an intuitive guess, or 2) using critical thinking to arrive at a forecast, and that the latter is the most accurate. One of the more interesting facts Tetlock discovered in his research is that the traits that make a person a good leader, are not necessarily the traits that lead that person to being a good, or super forecaster. Good leaders, though, know to hire and encourage people who are good at making forecasts. Instaread’s Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review is an excellent summary of the book, and is a worthwhile read on its own. Instaread guides are great for busy reader who want to get an idea about the guts of a book before investing in it. I was also impressed with the cover, a departure from the standard Cliff Notes-like covers of past Instaread books.

Not much insight, its barely 10 pages. Don't pretend like you'll learn much.

This is an overview of the actual book “Superforecasting.“ Kind of like an abbreviated Cliff's Notes for the full book. It provides a potential reader enough information regarding this book’s content to determine if we want to invest the extra money and time to actually buy and read the entire book. As an avid reader I have personally found professional outlines for current books like this one to be a very helpful and valuable service.

Good summary of a mediocre book

If one is new to the area of forecasting there is little to say that more can be gained by reading the book. If one is involved with creating or using forecasts, as proffered, this summary is a quick review of the major thoughts in the arena. Again, given even a rudimentary knowledge of the arena, the ideas are summarized with no indication that reading the full volume will provide a return on treasure, time or money, spent.

This book is NOT about the weather! Discovering that forecasters were not accurate, the GJP (Good Judgment Project) was launched in 2011. What are the traits, skills and conditions that create accurate forecasts for many different events and situations? There are 11 Key Takeways in this Instaread summary. Here are a couple to whet your appetite: >>>#1 - "Professional forecasters do not usually make accurate predictions, and their forecasts are not evaluated in any meaningful way. As with doctors, forecasters' predictions must be measured and judged for accuracy in order for the field of prediction science to advance." >>>#5 - "The GJP was a success. Superforecasters were found by one measure to be 30 percent better than field experts, and many got better over time instead of regressing to the mean." What's the difference between automatic cognition (System 1) and critical thinking (System 2)? Find out in Key Takeaway 2. It has been proved that "superforecasting is a skill, and that the good ones are not just lucky". What is probablistic thinking and why is it a characteristic of superforecasters? What is the "growth mindset"? The text is described "as simplified academic research" making for a "dense read". THEREFORE this Instaread summary (think DETAILED review) is perfect if you just want an overview of what the original is about. It may well save you from reading the 354 page original. Important to note that my review is based on the quality of this Instaread review and not the original book. Summary provided in exchange for an honest review. Thanks, Liz

Great condensed information. Good way to identify subject areas for future studying. Would recommend visual aids to supplement author's points.

In unserem Leben müssen wir ständig "Voraussagen" machen. Wir müssen im Voraus wissen, wie sich unser Leben entwickeln wird, wie sich unser Lebenspartner, unsere Kinder, unsere beruflichen Chancen etc. entwickeln werden. Wenn wir hier falsch liegen, bekommen wir Probleme. Manche Menschen scheinen eine unglaubliche Intuition zu besitzen, diese Entwicklungen richtig vorauszusagen. Wir stehen manchmal neidvoll daneben, weil wir den Eindruck haben, dass diese treffsichere Intuition eine besondere, nicht wirklich erlernbare Gabe ist. Tetlock zeigt durch seine gründliche Arbeit auf, dass wir alle unsere Intution deutlich verbessern und damit erfolgeicher werden können. Ein äusserst wertvolles Buch.

Clearly and interestingly written. The authors start with the issue of how well forecasts can, after the fact, be rated for accuracy. After that is the meat of the book - proven methods for improving individual and group forecasts, ones that stem from Philip Tetlock's large experimental projects. Essentially, these are ways to think clearly about murky topics. Even better, the presentation is engaging, with anecdotes and many references to popular and academic literature, and it offers the reader a proven mental tool-kit to improve analysis. I am already making use of the techniques. Particularly interesting is the closing chapters, where the authors pick up a Big Question. Can only relatively unimportant forecasting questions be addressed this way? Are the really important questions fundamentally unpredictable in a chaotic world? I thoroughly enjoyed this book.

I planned to purchase the full version however by mistake purchased the shorter version and after reading it was thoroughly disappointed. This book is like reading articles from here and there and lays a lot of emphasis on the assertion that hedgehogs (superforecasters) are not domain experts, are not decisive like leaders but still can make accurate predictions. Fortunately, I did not have to read the complete book and my mistake of buying the short version saved me the trouble.